Conflict Dynamics between Bangla Desh and India
| PANKAJ SHARMA |  |
When Hindu minorities in Bangla Desh faced grave hostilities, PrimeMinister Narendra Modi was under tremendous pressure to deal with theneighbouring country strongly. He was criticised not only by the Opposition butby his own colleagues in the Bhartiya Janata Party for not taking strong stepsto safeguard the interest of Hindus in Bangla Desh. A few of BJP MPs evenwent up to suggest that Modi must adopt the similar steps which Indira Gandhiundertook in 1971. His merely talking to Muhammad Yunus, the interim chiefof the Government of Bangla Desh was being seen inadequate.
But Modi decided to ignore these voices. He took a deliberate decisionto keep his calm and not use any kind of force. He rather tried to build a globalopinion on the issue using the backchannels of diplomacy. Modi’s strategyproved more sensible and effective and Bangla Desh is now perceived as anation playing in the hands of unacceptable fundamentalist elements.
India’s evolving approach to the use of force in international relationsreflects a significant shift under Modi’s regime for last ten years. India is arising power and its decisions on the use of force could have profoundimplications for regional stability in South Asia and they can also affect thebroader geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific. India’s military strategy hastransformed a lot at strategic, conventional and sub-conventional levels.
In today’s world geopolitical flashpoints dominate headlines. It is morepertinent than ever that why and how states use force. It is no more a drivingfeature of international politics to resort to force in the pursuit of nationalinterests. The timing, purpose and consequences of such actions have to beassessed properly before taking any step. Therefore, a steady approach by PMModi in dealing with the situation in Bangla Desh has been a very wise decisionas use of force could set off a cycle of unpleasant countermoves with real-life
consequences. Any sensible leader realises that force is not the primary butthe ultimate tool in inter-state interactions.
New Delhi’s resorts to actual use or inclination of using force matterssignificantly for the conflict dynamics in Southern Asia which has a history ofterritorial disputes and is home to three contiguous nuclear weapons powersin the world. At a systemic level also India’s behaviour on use of force providefood to the anxieties concerning how rising powers relate to the system ofinternational law. This is an era where nationalism and populism are drivingdomestic politics around the world. Thus, use of force and the toughness ofnational character it reflects has become a central feature of how leaderscompete for domestic legitimacy. This could have been the most ticklishdimension in Modi’s mind while dealing with Bangla Desh.
You may recall how the Modi government’s official utterances on India’sinclination to use nuclear weapons in India’s defence have seen significantuptick by Modi’s statement that India has not developed weapons for Diwaliafter the India-Pakistan crisis in February 2019 and in the run up to the 2019general elections. Special operations against militants operating fromMyanmar in 2015 and land and air vectors against Pakistan as a punishment tothe latter’s proxy wars in Kashmir had attracted mixed global reactions. On theChina border also, when during the Galwan crisis of 2020 New Delhi resortedto the proactive use of military forces, a controversy was createdinternationally as well as nationally.
Historically, India’s hesitance to use force was partly rooted in moralconsiderations. Under Modi, this approach has diminished. The current rulingdispensation wants to celebrate India’s emergence as a ‘hard state’. It is insharp contrast with the past emphasis on restraint and moralism. India hasnow started championing the use of force as a legitimate tool to secure India’svital interests.
The use of force has become an important tool for domestic politicallegitimacy for Modi. Opinion polls consistently show that military actions havebolstered Modi’s image as a decisive leader. Strategic use of force for electoralgains has attracted severe criticism also. It has been perceived as a cleardeparture from the past, where military actions were less explicitly tied topolitical popularity. Though it would be simplistic to ascribe Modi’s electoralsuccess merely to his aggressive policies, the correlation between assertivemilitary actions and voter support is evident. In this scenario, the way Indiadealt with Bangla Desh during the recent crisis has been surprising to many.
More so because Modi has been trying very hard to redefine India’s image as a“soft state” to one that is unapologetically willing to use force to secure itsnational interests.
India’s rise has significantly bolstered its ability to use force and manageits consequences. India’s economic and military ascent provides it with theresources to pursue national interests and absorb potential repercussions.Despite that India’s approach in Bangla Desh affairs has been so sophisticated.Though there still are various reasons of provocation, Modi Government’soverall dealing with our next-door neighbour seems quite mature.
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